When making decisions, leaders must be prepared to make an educated guess based on:

• A. previous experience
• B. knowledge of how the enemy operates and whatever intelligence is available
• C. likely outcomes
• D. random guesses

Answer: (B)

An educated guess is strongest when it is anchored in current intelligence about how the adversary operates and what information is available. Knowing the enemy’s methods, capabilities, and likely actions provides a concrete picture of risks and opportunities, allowing decisions to be aligned with real-time conditions rather than relying on past patterns alone or on assumptions. This foundation helps predict responses, assess probable outcomes, and choose a course of action that fits the situation and objectives.

Relying only on prior experience can miss recent changes in tactics. Focusing solely on what outcomes seem likely without grounding them in current intelligence can lead to choices that overlook new threats or opportunities. Random guessing is never appropriate in leadership decisions where safety and effectiveness are at stake.